I recently gave a talk to the excellent research team at Signal Media. And got asked the question I didn’t want to be asked. It was what is the BFMI in PyMC3? The way I largely think of it is, in a practical level – which is – if the BFMI metric is below the… Continue reading What is BFMI (Bayesian Fraction of Missing Information)?
Probabilistic Programming versus Machine Learning In the past ten years, we’ve seen an explosion in Machine Learning applications, these applications have been particularly successful in search, e-commerce, advertising, social media and other verticals. These applications have been particularly focused on predictive accuracy and often involve large amounts of data — sometimes in the region of terabytes — in fact this… Continue reading Why would I ever NEED Bayesian Statistics?
I’ve been recently playing around with ‘arviz’. For those of you who don’t know Arviz is a library for exploratory analysis Bayesian Models. I’ve got a Bayesian model built – or someone has built one for me, how do I explore it? How do I plot it? This is the fundamental question that Arviz answers.… Continue reading How do I visualise the results of a Bayesian Model: Rugby models in Arviz
My friend Erik put up an example of conversion analysis with PyMC2 recently. I decided to reproduce this with PyMC3. We want a good model with uncertainty estimates of various marketing channels. I’ll restate his assumptions for the model and then show the gist. Let’s make some assumptions about the model: The cost per transaction… Continue reading Marketing data with PyMC3