Think you need to learn Bayesian Analysis? Read this first

Bayesian Analysis the good parts One of the questions I’m often asked is what’s so powerful about Bayesian analysis? I speak regularly to analysts, who’ve heard of some of the powerful aspects of it, but haven’t heard enough to emotionally invest time in learning it. I’ve thought about this on and off for a few… Continue reading Think you need to learn Bayesian Analysis? Read this first

New Screencast: How do I build a Logistic Regression model the Bayesian way?

One question that is often asked by those who know Machine Learning to me is how do I build a Bayesian Logistic Regression model? If you know how to build a logistic regression model in sklearn or a standard machine learning library it’s quite easy to learn how to do the Bayesian version. In this screencast… Continue reading New Screencast: How do I build a Logistic Regression model the Bayesian way?

How to build a bayesian model in 30 minutes?

You have a problem that you think might need some Bayesian modelling A common question I’m asked is how do you start? In this tutorial I take you from a fresh data set, the data set is an educational dataset. I don’t know anything about the data, and I have no specific domain knowledge. I… Continue reading How to build a bayesian model in 30 minutes?

What is BFMI (Bayesian Fraction of Missing Information)?

I recently gave a talk to the excellent research team at Signal Media. And got asked the question I didn’t want to be asked. It was what is the BFMI in PyMC3? The way I largely think of it is, in a practical level – which is – if the BFMI metric is below the… Continue reading What is BFMI (Bayesian Fraction of Missing Information)?

Why would I ever NEED Bayesian Statistics?

Probabilistic Programming versus Machine Learning In the past ten years, we’ve seen an explosion in Machine Learning applications, these applications have been particularly successful in search, e-commerce, advertising, social media and other verticals. These applications have been particularly focused on predictive accuracy and often involve large amounts of data — sometimes in the region of terabytes — in fact this… Continue reading Why would I ever NEED Bayesian Statistics?

How do I visualise the results of a Bayesian Model: Rugby models in Arviz

I’ve been recently playing around with ‘arviz’. For those of you who don’t know Arviz is a library for exploratory analysis Bayesian Models. I’ve got a Bayesian model built – or someone has built one for me, how do I explore it? How do I plot it? This is the fundamental question that Arviz answers.… Continue reading How do I visualise the results of a Bayesian Model: Rugby models in Arviz

Marketing data with PyMC3

My friend Erik put up an example of conversion analysis with PyMC2 recently. I decided to reproduce this with PyMC3. We want a good model with uncertainty estimates of various marketing channels. I’ll restate his assumptions for the model and then show the gist. Let’s make some assumptions about the model: The cost per transaction… Continue reading Marketing data with PyMC3