You have a problem that you think might need some Bayesian modelling A common question I’m asked is how do you start? In this tutorial I take you from a fresh data set, the data set is an educational dataset. I don’t know anything about the data, and I have no specific domain knowledge. I… Continue reading How to build a bayesian model in 30 minutes?
I recently gave a talk to the excellent research team at Signal Media. And got asked the question I didn’t want to be asked. It was what is the BFMI in PyMC3? The way I largely think of it is, in a practical level – which is – if the BFMI metric is below the… Continue reading What is BFMI (Bayesian Fraction of Missing Information)?
My friend Erik put up an example of conversion analysis with PyMC2 recently. I decided to reproduce this with PyMC3. We want a good model with uncertainty estimates of various marketing channels. I’ll restate his assumptions for the model and then show the gist. Let’s make some assumptions about the model: The cost per transaction… Continue reading Marketing data with PyMC3
Yesterday evening I gave a talk at the Data Science Meetup in Luxembourg. This is part of my preparation for the talk at PyData the Python conference for Data Enthusiasts in Berlin. A few remarks – my slides from last night are here in IPython notebook format. I used for the presentation the excellent RISE… Continue reading Talk: Can Probabilistic Programming be applied to Rugby?